A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
